The USDJPY pair has stabilised around 148.00. Although inflation data improved slightly, market tension remains. Find more details in our analysis for 19 September 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- The USDJPY pair recouped losses and is stabilising
- The market awaits the Bank of Japan’s decision and assesses fresh inflation data
- USDJPY forecast for 19 September 2025: 148.26
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY rate is consolidating at 148.00 on Friday amid expectations of the Bank of Japan decision. The market generally expects the key rate to remain at 0.5%, although the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike in October is gradually increasing amid economic resilience.
Core inflation in Japan slowed to 2.7% in August, the lowest since November 2024. The decline is mainly due to the resumption of government subsidies for electricity and gas, as well as price adjustments for food products. At the same time, the rise in rice prices remains the main factor of inflationary pressure: in August, the price increased by 68.8% year-over-year, following jumps of almost 100% in June and 90.7% in July.
The sharp rise in rice prices caused public discontent, leading to a drop in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s ratings. Under pressure, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation after the coalition lost its majority in both houses of parliament. The government took urgent measures, including appointing a new Minister of Agriculture, releasing rice reserves, and adjusting the decades-old policy of encouraging the cultivation of alternative crops.
Japan’s economy grew by 1% year-on-year in Q2, better than expected amid US tariffs. However, exports to the US fell by almost 14% in August, and car shipments dropped by 28.4%. The auto sector, which accounts for one-third of Japan’s exports to the US, continues to struggle under a 27.5% tariff, recently lowered to 15% as part of a trade deal – some relief, but the burden remains heavy.
The USDJPY forecast is neutral.
USDJPY technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair rebounded after dipping to 145.41 and has since stabilised near 148.00. The nearest resistance level is at 148.26, and a breakout could open the potential for a move towards 148.80–149.00. The support level lies at 147.55, with a breakout lower paving the way to 146.90.
The overall bias is neutral-to-positive: the pair has rebounded from local lows, but further direction will depend on BoJ policy signals and broader monetary headlines.
Summary
The USDJPY pair has regained stability after midweek turbulence. The forecast for today, 19 September 2025, suggests a move towards 148.26 and possibly higher.
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