The USDJPY pair paused at 148.72, with the situation for the yen remaining problematic. Find more details in our analysis for 25 September 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- The USDJPY pair is poised to continue its ascent after a pause
- Investors are set to assess the Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes
- USDJPY forecast for 25 September 2025: 148.90 and 1500
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY rate stalled at 148.72 on Thursday.
According to the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s July meeting, some board members expressed support for the possibility of future rate hikes, although the decision to maintain current policy was unanimous. One participant noted that the central bank’s rate remains below the neutral level, with prices still elevated and the output gap at zero.
Overall, board members agreed that Japan’s economy is showing moderate recovery, while certain weaknesses remain. They emphasised the need to closely monitor the consequences of US tariff policy, which will require at least another 2–3 months to evaluate.
Consumer activity remains resilient, supported by rising employment and incomes, despite the negative effects of higher prices.
As for inflation, food price pressures – especially rice – were expected to ease. At the same time, one participant noted that rising rice prices reflect not only weather factors but also higher production costs. Inflation in processed goods is expected to slow following the decline in global commodity prices.
The USDJPY forecast is positive.
USDJPY technical analysis
The USDJPY H4 chart shows that the pair has gone through notable swings since early September. In the first days of the month, the rate rose above 148.50 before falling sharply to a low near 146.20. Since mid-September, a recovery has begun, with quotes returning to an uptrend and climbing back to the levels of the first days of the month.
The pair is now trading near 148.70, close to the 148.90 resistance level. The rise is accompanied by widening Bollinger Bands and the formation of a strong bullish impulse. A breakout above the current zone will open the way to 149.50–150.00. In case of a pullback, the support level will be at 147.50 and then 146.20.
Summary
The USDJPY pair has risen and paused. The USDJPY forecast for today, 25 September 2025, suggests the rally could continue to 148.90 and then to 150.00.
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