Netflix, Inc. stock forecast: shares on track for new highs amid a solid start to 2025

Netflix, Inc. released a strong Q1 2025 report, posting double-digit revenue and earnings growth, as well as steady progress in its advertising business. Against this backdrop, NFLX stock may surpass its all-time high.

In Q1 2025, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) delivered strong financial results, exceeding analysts’ expectations. Revenue reached 10.54 billion USD, with net income rising to 2.9 billion USD. Earnings per share came in above the forecast at 6.61 USD. Growth was driven by rising prices and the success of ad-supported subscriptions, which accounted for 55% of new registrations in available regions. The company has ceased reporting the number of subscribers on a quarterly basis and is now focusing on key metrics, such as revenue and operating margin.

This article provides an overview of Netflix Inc., presents its Q2, Q3, and Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 earnings reports, and offers insights through a technical analysis of NFLX stock, which forms the basis for Netflix Inc.’s stock forecast for 2025.

About Netflix, Inc.

Netflix, Inc. was founded on 29 August 1997 by Reed Hastings and Mark Randolph. The company was initially in the business of delivering DVDs on a subscription basis. Clients could order a film through the website and receive it by post. In 2007, Netflix launched a streaming service, allowing users to watch movies and TV shows online via the internet.

The transition to live streaming was pivotal in the company’s history. Netflix began actively expanding its content library to include licensed films, series, and original projects. By July 2024, Netflix had 277 million subscribers worldwide, making it the largest streaming platform.

Netflix, Inc.’s main financial flows

Netflix’s revenue mainly comes from streaming services, advertising, and other sources. The main components are outlined below:

• Subscription fees: this is Netflix’s primary revenue stream, which is divided into ad-supported and ad-free subscriptions
• Advertising revenue: payments from companies for placing advertisements
• Content licensing and distribution: revenue is generated from providing paid licences for Netflix’s original and purchased content to other platforms and TV channels. This segment also includes income from partnerships with telecommunication providers, cable companies, and other distributors that offer Netflix as part of their packages
• Other revenue streams: sales of merchandise related to Netflix series and films (e.g. toys, apparel, and collectables). The company has also started investing in the gaming industry by offering mobile games based on its intellectual property, creating additional opportunities for revenue growth

Most of Netflix’s revenue is derived from streaming subscriptions, while advertising, licensing, and other business segments offer additional potential for income growth.

Netflix, Inc. Q2 2024 report

Netflix released its Q2 2024 report on 18 July. Below is a comparison of its results with the same period in 2023:

• Revenue: 9.56 billion USD (+17%)
• Net income: 2.15 billion USD (+44%)
• Earnings per share: 4.88 USD (+48%)
• Operating profit: 2.60 billion USD (+44%)
• Operating margin: 27.2%​ (+490 basis points)
• Total subscribers: 277.65 million (+16%)

Although the company continues to increase the number of subscribers quarter over quarter, this growth is gradually slowing. The increase in memberships in Q4 2023 surpassed previous figures by 13.13 million, followed by 9.32 million in Q1 2024 and 8.05 million in Q2 2024. Netflix is facing challenges in identifying new catalysts for subscriber growth. The company is now attracting new subscribers by addressing password sharing and reducing the cost of ad-supported subscription plans. Market participants are sensitive to these statistics; a look at the stock behaviour when Netflix reported a loss of 200 thousand subscribers in Q1 2022 reflects this, causing the share price to fall by over 30%, continuing its decline.

Netflix’s management plans to stop publishing subscriber statistics from 2025 onwards to mitigate these challenges and focus investors’ attention on revenue per user, total revenue, and operating margin.

Amid slowing membership growth, the company is exploring new growth drivers, with advertising viewed as a potential source. Netflix’s management has noted that advertising is becoming increasingly significant to the company’s operations. However, building this business from scratch will take time, meaning it is unlikely to become the primary driver of revenue growth in 2024 and 2025.

Netflix forecasts 14% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2024, although a lower increase in paying users is expected compared to the same period in 2023. At the same time, no changes are anticipated for the global average revenue per user.

Based on the 2024 results, revenue is projected to rise by 14-15%, compared with the earlier forecast of 13-15%, while the operating margin is expected to reach 26%, up from the earlier estimate of 25%. The company’s goal remains to increase operating profit.

Netflix, Inc. Q3 2024 report

On 17 October, Netflix published its Q3 2024 report. Below is a comparison of its data with the corresponding period in 2023:

• Revenue: 9.82 billion USD (+15%)
• Net income: 2.36 billion USD (+41%)
• Earnings per share: 5.40 USD (+20%)
• Operating profit: 2.94 billion USD (+25%)
• Operating margin: 29.6%​ (+720 basis points)
• Total subscribers: 282.7 million (+14%)

Co-CEO Theodore Sarandos noted that content production is recovering after last year’s strikes in Hollywood, with series rebounding more rapidly than films. The company’s advertising business showed significant growth, with the number of subscribers to ad-supported plans increasing by 35% from the previous quarter. More than half of the new users in regions with ad services chose this package option. However, the company emphasised that effective ad monetisation will take time, and this segment will not become a primary revenue stream in the near term.

In Q4 2024, Netflix forecasts EPS of 4.20 USD and revenue of 10.12 billion USD, with total annual revenue growth expected to reach 15%. The total number of subscribers is projected to increase by 8.2 million, reaching approximately 290.9 million.

The company’s ad revenue is expected to double in 2025, driven by a 150% increase in liabilities for ad contracts concluded in 2024. Despite this optimistic outlook, Netflix notes that advertising will not become a key revenue driver in the near term. This data emphasises Netflix’s efforts to strengthen its position in the streaming market and diversify its revenue streams.

Netflix, Inc. Q4 2024 report

Netflix released a strong Q4 2024 report on 21 January. Below is a comparison of its results with the corresponding period in 2023:

• Revenue: 10.24 billion USD (+16%)
• Net income: 1.87 billion USD (+99%)
• Earnings per share: 4.27 USD (+102%)
• Operating profit: 2.27 billion USD (+51%)
• Operating margin: 22.2% (+530 basis points)
• Total subscribers: 301.6 million (+15%)

In its commentary on the Q4 2024 report, Netflix’s management expressed satisfaction with its strong financial performance and strategic achievements. They highlighted a 16% revenue increase from last year and a 102% surge in EPS, exceeding market expectations. They also noted significant membership growth to 301.6 million, driven by compelling content, including major releases such as Jake Paul vs Michael Tyson and NFL games.

Management emphasised the importance of continued investment in original content, which helped increase user engagement and reduce subscriber churn. Additionally, they announced plans to expand the proprietary ad platform into 12 more countries, which will help improve margins and monetisation by reducing reliance on intermediaries. Netflix’s management reiterated confidence in the company’s strategic direction, underlining that investment in content and ad technology development is a key driver of growth and long-term success.

Netflix provided guidance for 2025, indicating continued optimism. The annual revenue forecast was raised to approximately 44.00 billion USD (an increase of 0.50 billion from previous estimates). The operating margin is expected to reach 29%, up 1% from earlier projections. The company’s management also mentioned plans for further investment and business expansion in gaming, advertising, and live streaming to enhance appeal to subscribers.

Netflix, Inc. Q1 2025 report

On 17 April, Netflix released its Q1 2025 report, again demonstrating strong financial performance. Below is a comparison of its data with the corresponding period in 2024:

• Revenue: 10.54 billion USD (+13%)
• Net income: 2.89 billion USD (+24%)
• Earnings per share: 6.61 USD (+25%)
• Operating income: 3.34 billion USD (+27%)
• Operating margin: 31.7% (+360 basis points)

Netflix demonstrated impressive resilience amid economic challenges, including concerns about US trade policy. The company reported a 13% year-on-year revenue increase to 10.5 billion USD and a rise in net income to 2.9 billion USD. CEO Greg Peters noted that Netflix has historically been a stable company, even during economic downturns, without significant changes in customer behaviour.

A notable development was Netflix’s strategic shift towards advertising. The ad-supported plan accounted for 55% of new subscriptions in regions where it is available, highlighting the successful development of new revenue streams. The company plans to double its advertising revenues in 2025 through its proprietary ad platform.

For Q2 2025, Netflix forecasts revenue of 11.04 billion USD, signalling sustained growth driven by increased subscriptions and ad revenues. The company has maintained its full-year revenue guidance of between 43.5 and 44.5 billion USD and raised its operating margin target to 29%, up from 28%. These forecasts underscore Netflix’s confidence in its strategy and its ability to navigate economic challenges.

In its commentary on the Q1 2025 report, Netflix set an ambitious target of achieving a 1 trillion USD market capitalisation by 2030. Ted Sarandos reiterated that this is the company’s internal long-term goal, emphasising that it is neither official guidance nor a financial target. To achieve this goal, Netflix plans to double its 2024 revenue of 39 billion USD by 2030, focusing on the expansion of its advertising business. The company aims to generate 9 billion USD from global ad sales, benefiting from the growing popularity of ad-supported subscriptions. In addition, Netflix is investing in its ad tech platform, launched on 1 April 2025, which is expected to strengthen its ad capabilities and further boost revenue growth.

Netflix’s long-term growth strategy, targeting a market capitalisation of 1 trillion USD by 2030, demonstrates its commitment to innovation and thoughtful development.

Expert forecasts for Netflix, Inc. stock for 2025

• Barchart: 29 out of 44 analysts rated Netflix stock as a Strong Buy, two as a Buy, 12 as a Hold, and one as a Sell. The high price target is 1,494 USD, while the low one is 800 USD
• MarketBeat: 28 out of 36 specialists assigned a Buy rating to the shares, while eight gave a Hold recommendation. The high price target is 1,490 USD
• TipRanks: 20 out of 29 professionals recommend the stock as a Buy, seven as a Hold, and two as a Sell. The growth price target is 1,490 USD, while the sell price target is 833 USD
• Stock Analysis: 13 out of 33 experts rated the shares as a Strong Buy, 13 as a Buy, six as a Hold, and one as a Strong Sell, with a price target of 600 USD. The growth price target is 1,494 USD

Netflix, Inc. stock price forecast for 2025

Netflix shares are trading around the 1,000 USD resistance level on the weekly timeframe. Following the report release, the price broke above this resistance level, briefly rising to 1,020 USD. However, by the close of the trading session, the NFLX stock price had dipped to 987 USD, failing to consolidate above 1,000 USD. The possible price movements in 2025, based on NFLX stock performance, are as follows:

The primary forecast for NFLX shares suggests that the price could test the trendline at 900 USD, rebound, and climb to an all-time high of 1,065 USD. Its breakout may catalyse further growth in Netflix stock to 1,200 USD. This scenario is supported by uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s tariff policy, which has created negative sentiment in the market. Optimism could return once the tariff situation improves, with Netflix stock maintaining its upward trajectory.

The alternative forecast for NFLX stock predicts a breakout below the 900 USD trendline. In this case, the price could revisit the 820 USD support level. A rebound from this level would signal a potential rise to the all-time high of 1,065 USD.

Risks of investing in Netflix, Inc. stock

Investing in Netflix stock carries risks and potential challenges for the company. These include:

• Competition: major competitors with streaming services such as Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, and Apple TV+ are expanding their content libraries and subscriber bases. The company also faces competition from local market players who may offer more relevant content to regional viewers
• Content costs: producing high-quality original content requires a significant investment. Inflated costs may impact the company’s profitability

Market saturation - growth in subscriber numbers may slow down in countries with high streaming service penetration

• User reaction to ads: although users are currently accepting of ads and subscribing to the ad-supported plan, a shift in user sentiment could significantly harm the company’s financial position
• Advertising model efficiency: it remains unclear whether Netflix’s advertising model will be successful and capable of compensating for the lost income from traditional subscriptions

Despite considerable growth opportunities and innovations, investments in Netflix involve multiple risks. Therefore, all the relevant factors should be considered when making investment decisions.