The GBPUSD pair dropped to 1.3505. Investors are avoiding risks amid worsening conditions. Discover more in our analysis for 24 September 2025.
GBPUSD forecast: key trading points
- The GBPUSD pair declines amid market doubts about the Bank of England’s stance
- Domestic political contradictions also undermine the stability of the pound
- GBPUSD forecast for 24 September 2025: 1.3450
Fundamental analysis
On Wednesday, the GBPUSD pair is falling to 1.3505 after a survey reflected a slowdown in business activity in the UK in early September. Companies reported a decline in momentum and confidence amid rising risks of tax hikes before the end of the year.
The preliminary S&P Global UK composite PMI fell from 53.5 points in August to 51.0 in September.
The pound struggles to sustain growth even against the backdrop of positive investor sentiment and British equities at record levels. Markets are pricing in only 7 basis points of Bank of England rate cuts before the end of the year.
Part of the pound’s relative resilience against the dollar is explained by expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates later than the Fed. The reason lies in the fact that UK inflation remains at 4%, nearly double the regulator’s target.
In the UK, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves faces mounting pressure to keep public finances under control. This may lead to tax increases in the November budget.
The GBPUSD forecast is mixed.
GBPUSD technical analysis
From late August to 24 September, the GBPUSD H4 chart shows an initial rise, followed by a decline. In early September, quotes hovered within the 1.3450–1.3520 range. Afterwards, an uptrend began, reaching a peak around 1.3710 by 18 September. However, by 20 September, the market collapsed by nearly 200 points, returning to 1.3500.
Currently, the pair is consolidating near this level, with the nearest resistance levels at 1.3565 and 1.3595 and support levels at 1.3452 and 1.3420. Holding above the 1.3450–1.3420 zone keeps chances for recovery alive, while consolidation below will open the way towards 1.3350. To resume growth, the pound needs to return above 1.3565.
Summary
The GBPUSD pair has weakened due to domestic contradictions in the UK and interest rate concerns. The GBPUSD forecast for today, 24 September 2025, does not rule out further downside towards 1.3450.
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