The EURUSD rate is correcting after growth, dropping below the 1.1800 mark amid weak ifo business climate data in Germany. Discover more in our analysis for 25 September 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Market focus: Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index fell by 1.2 points to 87.7 in September
- Current trend: correcting downwards
- EURUSD forecast for 25 September 2025: 1.1700 or 1.1900
Fundamental analysis
EURUSD quotes dipped below 1.1800, retreating from a four-year high after weaker-than-expected business sentiment in Germany pressured the currency. The ifo Business Climate Index fell by 1.2 points to 87.7 in September, reaching its lowest since May and below market expectations of 89.3.
Meanwhile, investors are discussing comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who voiced a cautious stance on future rate decisions amid persistent tariff-driven inflationary pressures and a weakening labour market. Money markets are now pricing in about a 90% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in October.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, EURUSD quotes are reversing downwards from the 1.1900 resistance level. A local downward correction is currently underway, after which growth may resume. The key support level is at 1.1700.
The short-term EURUSD forecast suggests further growth towards 1.1900 if the bulls lift the price above 1.1800. Conversely, if the bears manage to hold below 1.1800, a decline towards 1.1700 is likely.
Summary
The EURUSD pair entered a downward correction, slipping below the 1.1800 mark as the euro came under pressure from weak ifo business climate data in Germany for September.
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